silent conversations: how i confronted my best friend after confessing being HIV positive - I guess meeting Y the following day was inevitable. but i pondered hard how i will manage after learning the status. what will i do? where do i start? an...
11 May 2010
When Jinggoy Will Rule the Philippines
Using a little bit of algebra, I have discovered that Jinggoy is likely to become President in 2015 (or during the regular election of 2016) if the current trend persists:
x1 = 1961, y1 = 39 (Diosdado Macapagal, Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo)
x2 = 1986, y2 = 24 (Corazon Aquino, Benigno Aquino III)
x3 = 1998, y3 = ? (Joseph Estrada, Jinggoy Estrada)
I firstdiscovered the slope (m), using the slope formula:
m = (y2 - y1) / (x2 - x1)
m = (24 - 39) / (1986 - 1961)
m = (-15) / (25)
m = -3/5 = -.6
Now, I used the point-slope formula to discover y3, Jinggoy Estrada's algebraically determined appointed time to be president:
y - y1 = m (x - x1)
y - 39 = -.6 * (1998 - 1961)
y - 39 = -.6 * (37)
y - 39 = -22.2
y = 17 (rounded to the nearest whole year)
June, 1998 + 17 yrs = 2015
So what does this really tell us about the Philippine electorate? First, if Noynoy is to really transform the political process, he will have to arrest the progression of the trend his election has started. He will have to be the last child of a president to become president. He may even need to become the last President who serves as the head of government.
Comprehensive electoral reform is necessary. A proportionately-elected Congress by party (or even some kind of district-based proportionate representation), single member district Senate seats, and perhaps, just perhaps, a parliamentary form of government. On the executive side: the strengthening of the bureaucratic state and rationalizing of government projects and services, elimination of pork barrel spending, and so on.
I know the algebra looks like Imelda mysticism, and yes, it is. But, the truth is, if Jinggoy will next rule the Philippines in 2016, then he is simply following the trend that Noynoy's election has started and if you think this mathematical exercise seems crazy, what would that say about us if Jinggoy were actually elected the next President in 2016?